20-20 in the rearview v. “Mission Accomplished”

Tuesday, 1 May 2007

An excellent roundup / mini-retrospective from Juan Cole — Mission Accomplished, 4 Years on: A Commentary in Links.

Including this entirely predictable, refreshingly unambiguous gem [our emphasis]–

…our study likely understates the extent of jihadist terrorism…

…The rate of terrorist attacks around the world by jihadist groups and the rate of fatalities in those attacks increased dramatically after the invasion of Iraq. Globally there was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks (28.3 attacks per year before and 199.8 after) and a 237 percent rise in the average fatality rate (from 501 to 1,689 deaths per year).

Iraq 101: The Iraq Effect – The War in Iraq and Its Impact on the War on Terrorism

Or again, you could just take it from me–

I’m gonna go out on a limb here. With a couple dozen new sub agencies, a crazy-ass reporting structure devoid of a clear chain of command, and a diluvian amount of new “intelligence,” in the form of your email and telephone calls, to sift through for meaningful information… The red tape has grown in on itself like pneumonia on HIV. I think the chances of a successful terrorist attack are about 10 times higher today than they were in August of 2001. 89 to 10, 6 March 2006

In all fairness I must admit I was wrong. I predicted a tenfold drop in safety and it’s actually only sevenfold. That’s what you get for exaggerating.

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